In my yesterday's post
http://analyzestockmarket.blogspot.in/2012/06/nifty-analysis-eod-jan-25th-12.html
I had clearly mentioned that 5130 acts as resistance and today market saw resistance again around that level. NIFTY made a high at 5134.55 and low at 5095.5
Support & Resistance Levels
NIFTY has strong immediate resistance in the range of 5130 to 5140 breaking that 5200 is possible on the upside. Similarly we also see 5080 to 5090 holding as strong immediate support zone.
Looking at some of the momentum indicators a correction is more likely to happen first before we see a further increase in NIFTY
For the correction to start 5040 to 5050 levels have to first start breaking with downside risk at 4950 to 4990 levels
Fibonacci Levels
On Fibonacci levels, connecting 4770 & 5194 we get the following support levels
23.6% - 5094
38.6% - 5033
50% - 4982
61.8% - 4932
78.6% - 4861
Today we saw 23.6% retracement and saw support at 5095
PARABOLIC SAR & Moving Averages
PARABOLIC SAR is still intact with moving pointing upward and below the candlestick charts, like wise if we draw EMA (Exponential moving average) 12 day & 26 day line. Still the slow moving average line i.e. 26 day is well below the fast moving average line EMA 12 day
So through moving averages & PARABOLIC SAR we are not able to predict further moves
MACD Line
MACD line converging and we should be able to get a clear picture in next 2 to 3 trading sessions. MACD line. Still trend is intact and should be able to confirm that only if the signal line starts crossing over
Williams %R
NIFTY was in a over bought level according to the indicator and steadily after that we are seeing a drop in the Williams %R line which is now heading south ward
Question is whether it will see reversal at 65 or will it go all the way down to over sold situation of 80 to 90
If the correction starts then 5000 will get taken off and level of 4950 is easily possible on cards and this might move Williams %R line further downward to over sold level
Full Stochastics
Again similar to Williams %R we also see that full stochastics line pointing southward and moving down from over bought situation
Full stochastics has started to decline with signal line already confirming a cross over on the downside, we should see correction coming in the days to come which will take it all the way down
Summary
1. Williams %R & Slow Stochastics have already started to confirm downtrend and both the indicators have reversed from the over bought level and moving steadily downward
2. Through moving averages, PARABOLIC SAR & MACD line we still need more confirmation to say that the downfall is coming by the way
3. Analyzing the support levels through Fibonacci as well as looking at previous resistance levels, we clearly see that retracement level is at 23.6% currently which is at 5093, more downside is possible with steady support around 5040 to 5050
NIFTY Analysis prediction for Jun 27th '12
1. After today's DOJI sign pattern seen on candlestick charts, we should see a big move coming sooner, question is whether it is upward or downward move
2. Looking at retracement level happening, and with 2 indicators already pointing downward more likely downside is the obvious way of looking at the market
3. Major support zone still intact at 5040 to 5050 levels
4. On pivot point level using camarilla formula, we can see that resistance is clearly at 5140 level
5. On pivot point using classic formula, 5038 to 5058 stands as steady support zone
Note : With DOJI (Open value is equal or almost equal to closing value) pattern formed, tomorrow or so we should see some big up/down move occurring and my take is correction is the first possible thing that will happen
Let us wait to first see 5095 breaking down all the way to 5040 to 5050
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