In my previous post on NIFTY for the same period between Jul 30th & Aug 29th I had mentioned about NIFTY reaching 4716 by end of Aug or early Sept.
However couple of changes have happened to charts since then and hence there is a need to come up with Scenario 2 to strengthen the case more evidently
Scenario 1 summary
1. I had mentioned that a move above 5196 to be treated as shorting opportunity however now levels have changed and have gone much further away hence I see a need to have another scenario built
2. With NIFTY moving back close to 5300 levels the current phase is put under question and makes me view it differently from a corrective A,B & C wave to an impulsive 5 wave move i.e. starting 5032.4 until today's high of 5293.2
3. With current wave movement confirmed as not a corrective wave then the previous impulsive wave gets to be renamed as a corrective wave A,B & C i.e. a move from 5348.55 to 5032.4
Scenario 2 possiblities
1. Current wave has resistance towards 5328 to 5330 levels. A correction might come at those levels or at current level itself (5282)
2. Wave 4 correction will be a mild one and it may take it to 5230 to 5250 levels
3. If wave 3 corrects at 5330 level then wave 5 will end around 5380 and 5415 level, post which we will see A,B and C wave starting
I require some more data points to see if NIFTY will slide down to 5000 around current month or so. However the outlook of 4716 has definitely changed from negative to positive with this current upmove
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